Metro Phoenix can no longer build residential subdivisions solely on groundwater.And that has major implications for places like Queen Creek and Buckeye, where most development has occurred in that way.But that’s not where most new subdivisions are popping up.Roughly two-thirds of subdivisions that are ready to begin selling lots in metro Phoenix have secured their water from a designated provider — mostly, from city water departments that have proven they have enough supplies on hand to accommodate a certain amount of additional use.That’s important.Most new subdivisions aren’t on the outskirtsBecause while the state has paused issuing certificates of assured water supply — which developers typically used to grow on groundwater — subdivisions that are served by a designated provider can continue building as they had before.And that’s where the bulk of new subdivisions in the Phoenix groundwater Active Management Area (AMA) were appearing in the months before the state tightened its stance.An Arizona Republic analysis of subdivision public disclosure reports filed with the Arizona Department of Real Estate through June 1 this year found that more acres of new homes (423) would be served by Queen Creek than by any other water provider.But it and other undesignated providers were on the hook to serve only about a third of the 1,767 acres of subdivisions that had filed reports.The rest would be served by designated cities.Groundwater will drain from the edges firstI know. We often read about how Buckeye and Queen Creek are among the nation’s fastest-growing municipalities.But clearly, not all of our housing growth is materializing on the outskirts.Even if that’s where a new groundwater model — the impetus for the state nixing construction on those supplies — has found the most unmet demand.That makes sense, because the Phoenix AMA is like a bathtub (albeit one larger than Connecticut):The deepest part is at the center, where most of the designated water providers are operating, with shallower bits on the edges — ironically, where those who are most reliant on groundwater are located.As the bathtub drains, water is going to move away from the edges first.That’s why the new model found problems.We are pumping more than we’re replenishingPresuming that pumping — from all uses, not just homes — continues to exceed what is replenished, there won’t be enough groundwater over 100 years to sustain all the certificates for subdivisions that have been issued but not necessarily built.Those certificates could end up about 700,000 acre-feet short over the next century.For perspective, that’s roughly the amount of tap water the city of Phoenix uses in two years.Most of that imbalance lies in the Hassayampa subbasin, which includes Buckeye, and parts of the West Valley subbasin, including areas near the White Tank Mountains.That’s where several giant, master-planned communities have been envisioned.If they are to materialize, the providers that serve them will have to find renewable supplies — perhaps by moving water from another groundwater transfer basin or by joining a regional effort, like Phoenix’s proposed water recycling initiative.They also should press for even more stringent conservation measures, so homes require less water to begin with.Things are worse in Pinal, yet growth finds a wayBut that doesn’t mean growth will come to a halt.Look at the adjacent Pinal AMA, where similar restrictions occurred in 2019 after a groundwater model there found nearly twice as much unmet demand — in an AMA that’s about 40% smaller than Phoenix.Arguably, the situation is far worse and more widespread there.Yet housing growth has not stopped in the Pinal AMA, nor has commercial or industrial growth. In fact, a slew of semiconductor and electric vehicle manufacturers are planning to build factories there.And not all of them must prove that they have secured something other than groundwater before they build.That’s because the state’s Assured Water Supply rules only apply to subdivisions, which means land split into six or more lots.Build-to-rent homes and apartments also are exempt from that requirement.We’ve got problems. Not life-ending onesSo, yeah, we’ve got problems.Most of our groundwater has been spoken for, and the rules we set decades ago to deal with that reality crack down heavily on one type of growth but not necessarily others.It’s time for a hard look at how and where we grow.But that doesn’t mean all new homes are materializing irresponsibly.Or that growth in metro Phoenix is over.Reach Allhands at joanna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com. On Twitter: @joannaallhands.If you love this content (or love to hate it – hey, I won’t judge), why not subscribe to get more?
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