By
By Mike Dolan6 Min ReadLONDON (Reuters) – This is no normal economic cycle and pity the poor forecaster.FILE PHOTO: A person arranges groceries in El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/For policymakers, investors or market traders, it’s been a bruising few years. Unprecedented shocks and an outsize inflation spike have tied the economics world in knots – mainly trying to assess what will be durable once the dust settles.Slow to accept a post-pandemic inflation surge was any more than a temporary price re-set after worldwide lockdowns and supply disruptions, public and private forecasters then switched to fearing the Ukraine-related energy jolt would entrench a cost of living squeeze for years and seed significant recessions.But as impressive U.S. disinflation sweeps through 2023, without a cratering of employment or the wider economy so far, the narrative is shifting again – and encouraging hopes that bruising central bank tightening may be short-lived too.With a ‘soft landing’ now majority thinking again, phrases like ‘immaculate disinflation’ abound and raise questions about whether underlying price dynamics have changed very much after all – even if geopolitical and supply chain maps are redrawn.“Is ‘sticky’ the new ‘transitory’?” Morgan Stanley strategists asked this week, comparing a much-lampooned descriptor of what was once assumed to be a temporary inflation pop with the word now most often used to frame its persistence.Whether ‘sticky’ disappears from the …
See the entire article on inflation, or, read more Arizona real estate investing news. It’s your call!
