Nothing is official yet, but prospects look dim for Arizona Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Legislature.Plan B — to knot up the state Senate in a 15-15 tie — is also looking like a distant prospect.Ever since election night, when Democrats in key swing districts started off in the lead, Republicans have gained ground.As of Friday, GOP candidates for the House and Senate have overtaken their rivals in almost every race. Yet there are still more than 628,000 ballots to count statewide as of 6:53 p.m. Friday, according to a tracker maintained by the secretary of state’s office.Based on races called and outstanding unofficial election results as of Friday evening, Republicans appear poised to boost their one-seat House majority.In the Senate, the GOP seems set to at least maintain its one-seat majority, with the potential to expand that margin with pickups in outstanding races.The Legislature’s one-seat margins in both the House and Senate bolstered confidence that this was the year to make a run for a Democratic majority. The national Democratic Legislative Leadership Committee made Arizona one of its top targets for a takeover, and has poured millions into 12 races in six of the state’s 30 legislative districts.But election results have dampened that confidence.In Legislative District 4, GOP candidates climb out of election night holeThe biggest shifts have come in Legislative District 4, which covers parts of east Phoenix, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale. The Democratic ticket of Sen. Christine Marsh, former lawmaker Kelli Butler and newcomer Karen Gresham has been eclipsed by their Republican opponents. Carine Werner, a Scottsdale Unified School District board member, has expanded her lead over Marsh, a two-term state senator.Rep. Matt Gress and newcomer Pamela Carter have overtaken Butler and Gresham. Gress is seeking a second term in the House and is the former state budget director under former Gov. Doug Ducey. Carter’s a fitness guru and former campaign staffer for Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential race.Democrat falls to 2nd place in Legislative District 2 House race; Republican winning key Senate raceIn north Phoenix, Sen. Shawnna Bolick has beaten back a challenge from Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert, currently a House member in Legislative District 2.A bright spot for Democrats in the district was Stephanie Simacek, a Peoria Unified School board member, who was leading Republican Rep. Justin Wilmeth and newcomer Ari David Bradshaw in a battle for one of two House seats for most of the week after election night.That changed Friday, when Wilmeth took the lead, narrowly trailed by Simacek and Bradshaw.Even if she wins, her victory would just hold the line for Democrats because Legislative District 2 was previously split.Democrats eye pickups in Legislative District 17Democrats have done best so far in southern Arizona’s Legislative District 17, where John McLean has maintained a lead over Republican former state Sen. Vince Leach, although the gap between the two has narrowed.Democrats are poised to flip a House seat in the district, too. Democrat Kevin Volk, a commercial real estate developer who ran as a single-shot candidate, has maintained a strong lead over incumbent Rep …
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