(This story has been updated to correct a factual error.)PHOENIX− You’re the Arizona Diamondbacks, the defending National League champions, and you’ve got a huge decision looming.You’re facing the San Diego Padres the final weekend of the season at Chase Field in Phoenix. If you win the three-game series, you’ll likely open the postseason at home against these Padres. Lose the series, and you’ll likely open on in San Diego.So, how do you play it?Do you go all-in and use top starters in Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly, or do you make sure they’re fresh for the playoffs?Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.Do you exercise caution or are you aggressive with the bullpen?Just how important is it to win the series and secure home-field advantage in the best-of-three wild-card round?The New York Yankees will be facing a similar dilemma. How hard will they go this final week against Baltimore and Pittsburgh to assure they have home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs, if not the World Series?If you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers with a depleted starting rotation, how important is it to keep the foot on the gas to make sure you have a better record than the Philadelphia Phillies in case they meet in the NL championship series?Well, if these teams step inside their analytics room, they may discover they’re wasting their time and energy if they really believe home-field advantage is worth fighting for, except for providing a few extra bucks in their owners’ pockets.“If there’s anybody to tell you that home-field advantage is overrated, three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer of the Texas Rangers tells USA TODAY Sports, “I’m your guy.“Really, it’s almost the opposite.”Trust him.Scherzer was on the 2019 Washington Nationals team that lost every home game during the World Series, and still won it all by winning four games against the Astros in Houston.Scherzer was also on the Rangers team that lost all three games at home during the ALCS last year but won all four games in Houston to reach the World Series, with the Rangers winning their first championship by going a record 11-0 on the road.“Baseball is a team sport, but there’s a very individual component to it,” Scherzer says. “You’re not relying on necessary communication on like other sports where crowd noise affects that. The field conditions are the same, too. Because of that, baseball is played the same way, whether you’re home or road.“So, this home-field advantage hasn’t made a bit of a difference in my experience.”Go ahead, take a good hard look at the numbers yourselves.The home team in last year’s postseason went 15-26 (.366), the worst of any postseason in 53 years, dating back to 1970 when there were only four teams in a postseason (4-7, .364).In the last five full years, excluding the 2020 postseason when games were played at neutral sites, more series were won on the road (27) than at home (22).Even when the pressure is the greatest, and the stakes the highest, home teams were just 6-10 in winner-take-all games since 2018.“I can’t explain it,” says Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who has won four World Series titles in his career, never clinching at home. “We didn’t just lose, we got pummeled at home last …
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