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NEW YORK, November 02, 2023–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The 2023 net combined ratio for the property/casualty industry is forecast to be 103.8, in part due to severe convective storm losses being the highest in decades. Hard markets continue with 2023 net written premium growth forecast at 8.3%, according to the latest underwriting projections by actuaries at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.The quarterly report, Insurance Economics and Underwriting Objections: A Forward View, was presented on Nov. 2, at an exclusive members only virtual webinar.Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist at Triple-I, discussed key macroeconomic trends impacting the property/casualty industry results including inflation, increasing interest rates and overall economic underlying growth.”P/C growth has improved in 2023, growing 1.3% versus 2.1% for overall gross domestic product (GDP). While many hurdles could derail such improvements, P&C underlying economic growth is currently positioned to increase faster than overall GDP by 2.6% versus 1.7% in 2024 and by 4.5% versus 2.0% in 2025,” he explained.Léonard noted that top risk scenarios for 2024 include geopolitics, weaking employment and gross domestic product (GDP) contraction. “The Fed may also keep increasing rates into 2025, pushing down home and auto insurance underlying economic growth.”Another area of concern, Léonard said, is P/C replacement costs. Between 2020 and 2023, P/C replace …
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