Inflation expectations are calm, but some expect that to change

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Inflation, inflation, inflation. The Federal Reserve keeps poring over data, trying to figure out whether it should hold interest rates higher for longer, to make sure inflation comes down to its 2% target — or continue to cut, in December and again into next year, confident of having defeated the inflation beast. 

The Atlanta Fed’s survey of business inflation expectations figure held steady at 2.2% in November, same as the prior month. For comparison, the consumer price index is up 2.6% over the last year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in recently during a speech in Dallas: “With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2% objective, albeit on a sometimes bumpy path.”

Along with businesses, everyday Americans’ inflation expectations certainly do seem “well anchored.” Consumers predict prices will rise 2.9% over the next year, according to the New York Fed.

Looking at current inflation rates, the Fed is right to be planning further interest-rate cuts, said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-incom …

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