A rule of thumb says when the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point, the economy ends up in a recession. Thus, its increase to 3.9% in October from 3.8% in September and …
Versions of this rule popularized by Goldman Sachs and economist Claudia Sahm use smoothed data that do not yet signal recession. Moreover, payrolls and output have been strong, contradicting the recession signal. Still, there are warning signs.First, most payroll growth has been in “backfill” sectors—retail, leisure, hospitality, health, education, social services, and government—trying to fill persistent pandemic-era vacancies. Excluding them, payrolls rose just 21,900, or 54,900 adjusted for the auto workers’ strike.
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